Post by Emmy Rossum on Feb 22, 2012 4:48:08 GMT -5
Alright, so, I was looking at the average callout, and it occurred to me that averages aren't the best way of determining whether someone can win. If you placed 15th in round one, but got first callout for the next five weeks in a row, you'd still have a lower average than someone who placed third every single round, despite the fact that your portfolio would ultimately beat theirs in the endgame.
So, with that in mind, I sat down and plotted out how I think the final six would shake down.
So, from the first ten photoshoots:
Katy > Ayumi > Charlize > Emmy > Gwen
Gwen > Ayumi > Katy > Emmy > Charlize
Gwen > Emmy > Ayumi > Katy > Charlize
Ayumi > Charlize > Emmy > Katy > Gwen
Ayumi > Emmy > Katy > Gwen > Charlize
Charlize > Emmy > Ayumi > Gwen > Katy
Charlize > Emmy > Katy > Gwen > Ayumi
Charlize > Katy > Gwen > Ayumi > Emmy
Emmy > Charlize > Ayumi > Katy > Gwen
Katy > Ayumi > Charlize > Gwen > Emmy
So, looking at this ranking, this is how any potential final two would shape up:
Ayumi beats Charlize 6-4; Ayumi beats Emmy 6-4; Ayumi ties Gwen 5-5; Ayumi beats Katy 6-4;
Charlize beats Emmy 6-4; Charlize beats Gwen 7-3; Charlize ties Katy 5-5;
Emmy beats Gwen 6-4; Emmy beats Katy 6-4
Katy beats Gwen 7-3
Charlize: 2 wins, 1 loss, 1 tie
Ayumi : 3 wins, 1 tie
Emmy: 2 wins, 2 losses
Katy: 1 win, 4 losses
Gwen: 1 tie, 3 losses
Well, damn. I had hoped that I'd do better last round, but I guess that's how life goes. Given how this round usually works, I'm guessing it's going to be a final three, which means I need to recalculate my statistics. Fun fun fun!
So, with that in mind, I sat down and plotted out how I think the final six would shake down.
So, from the first ten photoshoots:
Katy > Ayumi > Charlize > Emmy > Gwen
Gwen > Ayumi > Katy > Emmy > Charlize
Gwen > Emmy > Ayumi > Katy > Charlize
Ayumi > Charlize > Emmy > Katy > Gwen
Ayumi > Emmy > Katy > Gwen > Charlize
Charlize > Emmy > Ayumi > Gwen > Katy
Charlize > Emmy > Katy > Gwen > Ayumi
Charlize > Katy > Gwen > Ayumi > Emmy
Emmy > Charlize > Ayumi > Katy > Gwen
Katy > Ayumi > Charlize > Gwen > Emmy
So, looking at this ranking, this is how any potential final two would shape up:
Ayumi beats Charlize 6-4; Ayumi beats Emmy 6-4; Ayumi ties Gwen 5-5; Ayumi beats Katy 6-4;
Charlize beats Emmy 6-4; Charlize beats Gwen 7-3; Charlize ties Katy 5-5;
Emmy beats Gwen 6-4; Emmy beats Katy 6-4
Katy beats Gwen 7-3
Charlize: 2 wins, 1 loss, 1 tie
Ayumi : 3 wins, 1 tie
Emmy: 2 wins, 2 losses
Katy: 1 win, 4 losses
Gwen: 1 tie, 3 losses
Well, damn. I had hoped that I'd do better last round, but I guess that's how life goes. Given how this round usually works, I'm guessing it's going to be a final three, which means I need to recalculate my statistics. Fun fun fun!